Expectancy: is the system actually profitable?
One trade in R says little. A hundred trades in R tell you everything: expectancy = (win% × avg win R) − (loss% × avg loss R).
+0.35R
Expectancy per trade
The win-rate table for common targets
| Target | Break-even win rate | At 45% win rate |
|---|
| 1R | 50.0% | −0.10R / trade |
| 1.5R | 40.0% | +0.13R / trade |
| 2R | 33.3% | +0.35R / trade |
| 3R | 25.0% | +0.80R / trade |
| 5R | 16.7% | +1.70R / trade |
Assumes losers average −1R (a full stop). Partial profits, break-even stops and slippage all shift the real numbers — which is exactly why they're worth journaling rather than guessing.
Your R numbers already exist — you're just not collecting them
Every closed trade has an R-multiple. The free RB Trading journal computes it automatically on every trade you log, then shows your live win rate, average R and expectancy — the three numbers this page approximates — from your own data instead of hypotheticals.
Journal your R free → By RB Trading · Updated 2 Aug 2026 · Free forever, no signup needed.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What is an R-multiple in trading?
R is your initial risk on a trade — the distance from entry to stop-loss. A trade's R-multiple is its result divided by that initial risk: R = (exit − entry) ÷ (entry − stop) for longs. A trade that makes twice what it risked is +2R; a full stop-out is −1R. Measuring in R makes trades of any size and any market directly comparable.
What is a good risk:reward ratio?
There is no universally good ratio — it only means something next to your win rate. A 2R target is profitable above a ~33.3% win rate; a 1R target needs more than 50%. The pair to optimise is expectancy: (win rate × average win in R) − (loss rate × average loss in R). Positive expectancy with enough trades is an edge; a high ratio alone is not.
How do I calculate trading expectancy?
Expectancy per trade = (win rate × average win in R) − (loss rate × average loss in R). Example: 45% win rate, average winner +2R, average loser −1R gives 0.45×2 − 0.55×1 = +0.35R per trade. Over 100 trades at 1% risk that is roughly +35% of risk capital before costs.
Why should I journal trades in R instead of dollars?
Dollar results mix your strategy's quality with your position size and account growth, so they cannot be averaged meaningfully. R strips sizing out: every trade risked 1R, so your average R and win rate describe the strategy itself. That is why professional reviews, and the RB Trading journal, are built around R.