Attempt by attempt
| Attempts | Total fees paid | Chance of at least one payout |
|---|
Why the sticker price is not the cost
A challenge fee looks like the price of a funded account. It is really the price of one attempt. If most attempts fail, the true cost is the fee multiplied by the number of tries it takes you, and that number depends on your own pass rate, not the firm's marketing. This calculator turns your estimate of that pass rate into an expected cost, and then into the profit a first payout must reach just to cover it.
We never assume a pass rate for you. Published industry numbers vary wildly, mix very different traders, and say nothing about you. The best estimate you have is your own record: how often your strategy, traded at challenge size, would have hit the profit target before the drawdown limits. The journal and the Monte Carlo simulator can both help you get there.
The math, step by step
Treat each attempt as a trial that either reaches a first payout or does not. Its chance of success s is the product of every stage you must survive:
Expected attempts comes from the geometric distribution: if something succeeds with probability s each time, you need 1 ÷ s tries on average. The chance of at least one success in k attempts is 1 − (1 − s)^k, which is what the table above shows.
A worked example
A hypothetical $100,000 two-step challenge costs $500, with a retry price of $450. You estimate your own chances from your journal: 30% to pass phase 1, 60% to pass phase 2, and 50% to reach a first payout once funded. Your split is 80%.
Just getting funded costs less: 0.30 × 0.60 = 18% per attempt, 5.6 attempts, about $2,550. But a funded account that never pays out has earned you nothing, which is why the calculator counts the funded stage too. With a $2,000 budget you can afford 4 attempts (one at $500, three at $450), and the chance at least one of them reaches a payout is 1 − 0.91^4, about 31%.
Look at which number moves the result most. Raising your phase 1 pass rate from 30% to 45% cuts the expected cost to about $3,400. Finding a cheaper firm with the same rules saves far less. Improving the pass rate is the lever, and it comes from trading the rules well: position sizing that survives the daily loss limit, respect for the consistency rule, and a strategy with real expectancy.
How to estimate your own pass rate
- From past challenges. If you have taken 8 phase 1 attempts and passed 2, your rate is 25%. Small samples are rough, so do not round it up.
- From your journal. Split your trade history into challenge-length windows at the size you would trade, and count how many windows hit the target before breaching the max drawdown or daily limit.
- From simulation. Put your win rate and average R into the Monte Carlo simulator, set the drawdown level to the firm's max loss, and read the share of runs that hit it.
Firm fees, reset prices, refund policies and payout splits change often and differ by product, so confirm them on the firm's own site before you buy.
Find your real pass rate
Track every challenge in the journal: rule room against the daily loss limit and max drawdown, the consistency check, and the breach reason when an account fails. Your pass rate stops being a guess.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
How much does it really cost to get a funded prop account?
On average it costs the first fee plus the reset price for every failed attempt. If your chance of passing per attempt is s, you need 1 / s attempts on average, so the expected cost is the first fee plus (1 / s − 1) times the reset price. The number that matters most is your own pass rate.
What pass rate should I enter?
Your own, not an industry figure. Use your record from past challenges, or test your journal history against the firm rules at the size you would trade. The calculator never assumes a pass rate for you.
What is the break-even payout?
It is the gross profit your first payout must reach so that your share, after the split, covers the expected cost of getting there. It equals the expected cost minus any refunded fee, divided by your payout split.